Caroline Béguin: So we’ve looked at the past and present of banking products. Now let’s fast-forward to the future. I’m going to give you wide industry predictions, and you have to bet on each one high chance, medium, or no way. In five years, banks will completely get rid of branches.
Andrew Steadman: No way. I don’t think they’ll be allowed to. Regulators around the globe still want to preserve some access to branches, particularly for people who can’t use a mobile phone or there are certain things that we as humans want to talk to a person about because it’s important to us. Buying a home, planning for our retirement. We want to be comfortable that what we’re doing is the right thing, and so more frequently, we want to interact with a person who we feel we can trust. Normal day-to-day transactions, I’m doing them on my phone. I mean, my daughter, she doesn’t understand why she should ever need to go to a branch of a bank. Makes no sense to her. Why should she ever go? So when they ask her to come in for some reason, she’s like, “I don’t understand why I need to do that.” But I think there are certain things that you will want to do, and I think there are certain segments of society who need access. And so we will see branch networks diminish considerably. I think we’ll start seeing shared locations, so you’ll have one bank branch, but shared by multiple brands because they’ll spread the cost. But ultimately, I think they’re here to stay because we’ll always have a need for them.
Caroline Béguin: Yeah. I like human connections.
Andrew Steadman: That’s another element, right?
Caroline Béguin: AI will replace product managers in banking.
Andrew Steadman: No. Don’t think that’ll happen. AI is a really powerful tool to be used to support doing things. But when I’m trying to uncover problems that even you don’t realize you’ve got as a consumer, AI is gonna struggle with that because AI learns from what it knows. We’re trying to uncover potentially the unknown. And so I think AI is a very useful tool, and I think product managers will use it more and more to make their daily jobs easier, but I don’t think it’ll ever replace a product manager. Fingers crossed on that one.
Caroline Béguin: We’ll see a Netflix-style subscription model for financial services.
Andrew Steadman: So I think in many countries we do already. I think in many countries, the idea of a current or checking account being free is gone. It’s no longer sustainable. So I do think more and more you will pay for the level of service you want. And you think about Netflix, you’ve, you’ve got the basic service that they push ads into. You’ve then got the next one up, which gives you a better picture quality, and two or three of you can share it, and then you pay the most, you get the highest quality picture and the whole family can share it. I think we’ll see models like that, whereby I am willing to pay for the level of service I receive. And I would argue in instances we do already. If you look at American Express as a charge card, it has its green one, its gold one, its platinum one, and its black one, the Centurion card, and each carries a different price, and each carries a different level of service. And people are willing to pay now for the service provided they can see the value in what they’re receiving, and I think that’s the key thing. They’re willing to pay for a service if they can receive the value.
Caroline Béguin: Big Tech will own more financial products than traditional banks by 2035.
Andrew Steadman: No, I don’t think so. Because I think what we will see is tech distributing bank products, but banks will still be the bankers, they’ll have the product. And I think we’ll see more and more of that. I mean, in the UK this week was it National Westminster Bank, one of the big players in the UK, is now enabling the Automobile Association, which is the national company that when your car breaks down by the side of the road, they’ll send a truck out to repair it. They’re now offering savings accounts and loans. But NatWest is providing the banking because you need a banking license, you need to understand compliance and risk, and that’s the expert domain of banks. So I think what we’ll see is technology companies becoming the distributor of banking products more and more, and perhaps the brand of the bank is gonna be less prominent. But ultimately, somebody has to have that banking license.
Caroline Béguin: Cash will be completely obsolete in major economies within ten years.
Andrew Steadman: That’s an interesting one. I don’t think so. I think much that governments would like that for the reasons of cost, the reasons of taxation, because of course, I can see all transactions, therefore, I have the opportunity to tax them all. The cost of producing money and handling money, it’s very expensive, so banks would like to get rid of it from a cost security risk. I think governments would like to. I think consumers, there are still a lot of the global economies that have a portion which is cash-based. Whether it’s I’m paying for the guy who mows my lawn or, you know, whatever. Those cash-based economies, I don’t think will ever really give up. So cash is always going to be there. And if they tried to pull cash, I would suggest something else would become a medium of exchange in place of cash. So, I’d be really surprised if it ever completely disappears.
Caroline Béguin: To be fair, I don’t really need cash. If it was just for me I would get rid of it because it’s always annoying when I go to the butcher and he tells me, “No card under fifteen.” And I’m like “Oh, no.” Because I never carry cash.
Andrew Steadman: I mean, so here I am in France. I’ve not had a euro in my wallet for I don’t know how long. I never bother getting cash when I go overseas. I can’t remember the last time I went to an ATM. I really can’t. For me personally, I probably have got a twenty-pound note in my wallet. I’ve no idea how old it is. It’s there just in case. But I think the segments of society still deal in cash. There’s an accessibility issue, particularly where you’ve got aging populations or people who are more vulnerable, that the technologies they’re not comfortable with, they want to pay with cash. We see certain places in the world who are now legislating that shops must receive cash. I mean, I remember the first time I went into a sandwich shop in London, and they accepted no cash, and I thought, “Oh, that’s a surprise.” But then you’ve got some cities in, I think it’s in California, who’ve been legislating to say you must still accept cash because by excluding cash, you’re excluding part of the population.
Caroline Béguin: Banks will no longer offer their own products, just marketplaces for third-party financial services.
Andrew Steadman: I think by definition, a bank will always offer its own products because it has a banking license, and therefore it’s in a unique position to offer products that others can’t. However, I think what we’ll increasingly see is that banking products are embedded in a broader offering. You don’t want a mortgage, you want to buy a house. So you have to get a mortgage to help you buy the house. If you think about that process of buying a house, if your bank could help you do that really easily and they do a mortgage at the same time, you’ll go, “Well, yeah, I’ll work with them. They’re making my life easier.” Whereas you have to go and find a solicitor, you have to find the removal firm, you have all those things. So I think what we’ll see is banks will continue to offer banking products because they’re in a unique position to do that because of their banking license, and they’re not cheap. I mean, last time I saw a valuation of a banking license in the UK, it was sixty, seventy million sterling was the value of the license. But those banking products will be embedded in an offering which is more attuned to what you are actually trying to achieve as an outcome for your personal gain.